AI threatens the creative economy: a large-scale HSE study predicts huge losses

The IPQuorum plenary session has become a platform for presenting the results of a large-scale HSE study on the impact of generative AI on the creative industries. The study, which ISSEZ director Leonid Gokhberg says is the first of its kind, paints a disturbing picture: in the next four years, the revenues of authors and rights holders may fall by more than 1 trillion rubles.

The main conclusion of the study is that the penetration of generative AI will lead to direct financial losses for the creative professions. The share of AI-generated content is projected to increase significantly in sectors such as translation, literature, music, graphics, and even programming. Artists, photographers, musicians, actors and dancers are the most vulnerable, but even here, the share of “machine” content will be 9-12% by 2030. The situation is more critical in the areas of content consumption, such as translation, literature, music, where the share of generative objects can reach 28-30%.

Scientists emphasize that the research is based on data from Rosstat and the approaches of the International Labor Organization. Igor Drozdov, Deputy Chairman of VEB.RF, noted the need to create mechanisms for compensating authors for the use of their works in training AI. Andrey Krichevsky, Chairman of the Russian Center for the Turnover of Rights to the Results of Creative Activity (RCIS), stressed that the problem is not in slowing progress, but in the need to control its use.

The study also revealed that most of the traffic of neural networks is concentrated outside Russia, and the “profit” from the replacement of human creativity by machine generation will bring mainly to other jurisdictions. The authors plan to continue the study using a representative survey and data verification.